Navigating Tariff and Trade Crosswinds

Hello from Tiger Logistics!

As global trade flows encounter unprecedented turbulence—fueled by tariffs, shifting alliances, and fragile demand—we bring you this August – Independence Day edition with sharp insights from across sectors. From the escalating India–US trade standoff and plunging sea freight rates to promising breakthroughs like the India–UK Free Trade Agreement, this month’s newsletter captures the pulse of volatility, opportunity, and strategic recalibration.

Whether you’re navigating supply chain bottlenecks, tracking steel or electronics exports, or preparing for tariff ripple effects—our goal is to give you the edge with real-time context, data, and direction. Dive in, stay informed, and lead ahead.

Special Announcement

This year marks the 25th year anniversary for Tiger Logistics. We are proud and honored to have been awarded the Logistics Company of the Year at MALA. The award was received by Mr. Harpreet SIngh Malhotra, CMD, Tiger Logistics.

1)India–US Trade Talks Turmoil

On July 31, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25% import tariff on all Indian goods starting August 1. The move is not limited to a few items; it is a blanket tariff on nearly $87 billion worth of Indian exports to the U.S. (2024 figures).

On August 6 Trump again signed an executive order accusing India of colluding with Russia, increasing the effective tariff rate on the country to 50 percent, up from 25 percent as per the previous order issued on July 31. Roughly 17.90% of India’s total goods exports go to the U.S., so even a 5–10% drop could translate to billions in lost revenue. This 50% tariff is not just about trade; it is a geopolitical pressure tool.

Let’s Compare Tariff with Other Country Sector -Wise:

In the first half of 2025, India’s steel sector faced a sobering reality check: exports plunged 25% year-on-year to 3.7 MNT mainly due to weak Demand from EU. On Brightside imports, cushioned by a 12% safeguard duty, fell by 14% to 4.4 MNT. The country remained a net importer, with a 0.7 MNT deficit versus 0.3 MNT a year earlier.

Regionally, the European Union’s appetite waned by 46% due to the weak European economy. Naturally Indian Steel exporters are shifting towards different market like U.S. volumes rebounded nearly 194%, reflecting a strategic pivot toward American buyers. US can potentially absorb EU’s share amidst the currently rising Tariff barriers between the India and US. Meanwhile, markets such as Nepal (+60%) and the UAE (+26%) offered bright spots as smaller markets. With global overcapacity and price pressures persisting, preserving momentum in H2 will hinge on diversifying destination markets and sharpening domestic competitiveness.

3) Asia–U.S. Sea Freight Rates Poised to Slide Further 

While tariffs dominate headlines, downstream logistics are feeling the squeeze too. According to shipping analytics firm Xeneta, spot container rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast have plunged by 58% since June 1, and East Coast rates are down 46%. Overcapacity—fueled by tariff-driven rerouting away from the Red Sea and cancelled sailings—has overwhelmed demand, leaving carriers scrambling to fill idle vessels. Even a brief uptick during Trump’s 90-day tariff truce in late May couldn’t reverse the trend. As more ships enter the market in H2 ’25, rates are expected to slide further unless carriers can sustainably divert capacity or secure new cargo flows.

For Indian exporters already grappling with punitive duties, softer freight costs offer little relief when underlying trade volumes are under pressure. Market participants warn that without clearer tariff roadmaps and a rebound in end-demand, extended rate declines could compound export challenges well into next year.

4) Electronics Exports 47% Surge 

India’s electronics sector kicked off FY26 with a bang—Q1 exports surged 47% year-on-year to USD 12.4 billion, driven by a staggering 55% jump in mobile phone shipments (from USD 4.9 billion to USD 7.6 billion). Non-mobile segments aren’t far behind: solar modules, routers, charger adapters and critical components vaulted 36% to USD 4.8 billion.

Yet, as ICEA Chairman Pankaj Mohindroo notes, the real test lies in broadening the export base: “We must now climb from momentum to resilience—building end-to-end supply chains, championing Indian brands in wearables and IT hardware, and deepening value addition across all categories.” With exports on track for a record USD 46–50 billion this year, India’s electronics story is no longer just about handsets—it’s about forging sovereign, globally competitive capabilities.

6) India–UK Free Trade Agreement: A Win–Win for Indian Industry 

India’s prime minister is expected to sign the India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on July 24, 2025. The pact was finalized on May 6, 2025, after over three years of intense negotiations between the two countries.

The landmark India–UK FTA dismantles tariffs on 99% of Indian exports, unlocking instant duty-free access to British markets for everything from marine products and textiles to chemicals and base metals.

In practical terms, turndown rates—from 20% on seafood and 12% on apparel to 10% on auto parts—plummet to zero, while processed foods see nearly 100% tariff elimination. On the flip side, Indian consumers gain access to British cars (tariffs cut from 100% to 10%) and spirits (from 150% to 40%) at far more competitive prices.

Crucially, the agreement isn’t just about goods—it creates waves of new jobs in labour-heavy sectors (textiles, leather, footwear, seafood), expands agricultural exports (spices, pulses, mango pulp) by over 20%, and streamlines professional mobility for Indian engineers, yogis, chefs, and family-service suppliers.